Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Zenit · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (13%), 1-1 (13%), 2-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Zenit 2-1 Lokomotiv
Original prediction
Zenit
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.39 | 68.3% | 53.9% | -14.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.99 | 19.1% | 24.9% | 5.9 pts |
| Away | 7.49 | 12.7% | 21.1% | 8.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.39 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–013%
- 2.1–113%
- 3.2–012%
Predicted outcome
Zenit
Probability
53.9%
Model confidence
53.9%
Zenit has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ZenitLWWLD
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
LokomotivWDLLL
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
ZenitLokomotiv
100.0Attack25.0
100.0Defence66.7
100.0Form25.0
98.0Power42.1
1.65xG0.79