Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Zenit · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Zenit 3-2 Akhmat
Original prediction
Zenit
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 17:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.37 | 69.2% | 69.7% | 0.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.93 | 19.3% | 18.1% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 8.19 | 11.6% | 12.3% | 0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.37 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Zenit
Probability
69.7%
Model confidence
69.7%
Zenit has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ZenitWWWDW
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AkhmatLDLWD
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ZenitAkhmat
73.3Attack43.3
63.3Defence56.7
70.0Form36.7
68.1Power47.1
2.18xG0.81