Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Zenit · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Zenit are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WDLWD), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Akhmat are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (LWDWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Zenit hold a 35.0-point power-rating edge (80.3 v 45.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 42.0% in the Cup, while Zenit holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 51% BTTS chance and 46% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Zenit
Probability
42.0%
Model confidence
42.0%
Zenit has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20