Zenit Penzavs
Arsenal Tula II
COMPLETEDRussia · Second League - Group 3 · 9/19/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Zenit Penza · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Zenit Penza 0-0 Arsenal Tula II
Original prediction
Zenit Penza
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.64 | 55.9% | 53.4% | -2.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.30 | 21.3% | 22.8% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 4.03 | 22.8% | 23.8% | 1.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.30 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Zenit Penza
Probability
53.4%
Model confidence
53.4%
Zenit Penza has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20