Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Zenit 2 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Zenit 2 3-0 Amkar
Original prediction
Zenit 2
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 18:29 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.71 | 52.6% | 63.0% | 10.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.70 | 24.4% | 19.6% | -4.8 pts |
| Away | 3.92 | 23.0% | 17.4% | -5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.71 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
10.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–110%
- 2.2–010%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Zenit 2
Probability
63.0%
Model confidence
63.0%
Zenit 2 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Zenit 2WWWWD
GF 10 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
AmkarLWWLD
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Zenit 2Amkar
86.7Attack76.7
86.7Defence56.7
86.7Form63.3
84.6Power63.3
2.29xG1.02