Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Heist · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Zelzate 1-5 Heist
Original prediction
Heist
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 October 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.69 | 24.3% | 33.3% | 9.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.74 | 24.0% | 25.1% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 1.73 | 51.7% | 41.6% | -10.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.73 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Heist
Probability
41.6%
Model confidence
41.6%
Heist has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ZelzateLLDDL
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
HeistWLDWL
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
ZelzateHeist
26.7Attack40.0
26.7Defence26.7
13.3Form26.7
26.0Power34.5
1.53xG1.60