Ząbkovia Ząbkivs
Jagiellonia II
COMPLETEDPoland · III Liga - Group 1 · 10/10/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ząbkovia Ząbki · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ząbkovia Ząbki 2-2 Jagiellonia II
Original prediction
Ząbkovia Ząbki
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 8 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.99 | 45.3% | 42.2% | -3.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.80 | 23.8% | 26.2% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 2.92 | 30.9% | 31.6% | 0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.80 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Ząbkovia Ząbki
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Ząbkovia Ząbki has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80
GF 13 · GA 11 · avg 2.60/2.20