Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Zaragoza · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Zaragoza 1-0 Teruel, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Zaragoza 4-1 Teruel
Original prediction
Zaragoza
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 04:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.27 | 71.9% | 49.8% | -22.2 pts |
| Draw | 4.72 | 19.4% | 27.4% | 8.0 pts |
| Away | 10.50 | 8.7% | 22.9% | 14.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.27 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-22.2 pts
Projected Score
Zaragoza 1–0 Teruel
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Zaragoza
Probability
49.8%
Model confidence
49.8%
Zaragoza has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ZaragozaWWWWL
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
TeruelDLLLD
GF 1 · GA 8 · avg 0.20/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
ZaragozaTeruel
50.0Attack0.0
50.0Defence33.3
50.0Form16.7
50.0Power21.0
1.31xG0.76