Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Səbail · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Zaqatala 1-3 Səbail
Original prediction
Səbail
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 15 September 2026 at 19:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 13.96 | 6.5% | 21.7% | 15.3 pts |
| Draw | 5.38 | 16.8% | 23.7% | 6.9 pts |
| Away | 1.17 | 76.8% | 54.6% | -22.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.17 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-22.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–110%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Səbail
Probability
54.6%
Model confidence
54.6%
Səbail has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ZaqatalaLLWDW
GF 7 · GA 12 · avg 1.40/2.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 5/5
SəbailDWWDL
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
ZaqatalaSəbail
41.7Attack41.7
8.3Defence75.0
33.3Form66.7
29.1Power64.8
1.05xG1.67