Zamoravs
Ponferradina
COMPLETEDSpain · Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · 10/17/2026, 4:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Zamora · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Zamora 0-0 Ponferradina, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Zamora 1-1 Ponferradina
Original prediction
Zamora
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 08:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.21 | 41.3% | 42.6% | 1.4 pts |
| Draw | 2.97 | 30.8% | 30.9% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.27 | 28.0% | 26.5% | -1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 1.97 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.4 pts
Projected Score
Zamora 0–0 Ponferradina
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Zamora
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
42.6%
Zamora has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ZamoraDWWLW
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
PonferradinaLWDWL
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
ZamoraPonferradina
44.4Attack22.2
66.7Defence72.2
55.6Form44.4
57.8Power49.3
1.02xG0.67