Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Zamora · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Zamora 0-0 Lugo, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Zamora 1-2 Lugo
Original prediction
Zamora
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.07 | 43.4% | 37.8% | -5.6 pts |
| Draw | 2.99 | 29.9% | 30.6% | 0.7 pts |
| Away | 3.36 | 26.7% | 31.6% | 4.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.6 pts
Projected Score
Zamora 0–0 Lugo
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Zamora
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
Zamora has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ZamoraWLDWL
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
LugoWDWWW
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ZamoraLugo
33.3Attack34.2
33.3Defence59.6
0.0Form43.9
23.7Power48.2
1.01xG0.93