Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Togo · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Zambia 2-0 Togo
Original prediction
Togo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.94 | 46.8% | 35.2% | -11.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.03 | 30.0% | 29.1% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 3.92 | 23.2% | 35.7% | 12.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Togo
Probability
35.7%
Model confidence
35.7%
Togo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ZambiaLLLLL
GF 4 · GA 16 · avg 0.80/3.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
TogoWWDWD
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ZambiaTogo
33.3Attack33.3
0.0Defence100.0
0.0Form100.0
15.3Power80.3
1.07xG1.38