Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Newroz · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Zakho 0-0 Newroz, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Zakho 0-1 Newroz
Original prediction
Newroz
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 15:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.62 | 34.5% | 25.0% | -9.5 pts |
| Draw | 2.71 | 33.3% | 31.5% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.81 | 32.2% | 43.5% | 11.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.81 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.4 pts
Projected Score
Zakho 0–0 Newroz
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Newroz
Probability
43.5%
Model confidence
43.5%
Newroz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ZakhoLWDDL
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
NewrozDWWWD
GF 7 · GA 0 · avg 1.40/0.00
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
ZakhoNewroz
29.2Attack41.7
54.2Defence79.2
37.5Form50.0
42.8Power57.4
0.56xG1.09