Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Erbil · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Zakho 0-1 Erbil, with an exact score probability of 25%.
Prediction record
Final result
Zakho 2-1 Erbil
Original prediction
Erbil
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 18:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.85 | 31.5% | 19.2% | -12.3 pts |
| Draw | 2.96 | 30.4% | 29.4% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.37 | 38.1% | 51.4% | 13.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.3 pts
Projected Score
Zakho 0–1 Erbil
Exact score probability: 25%
Predicted outcome
Erbil
Probability
51.4%
Model confidence
51.4%
Erbil has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ZakhoLLLWD
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
ErbilLLDWL
GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ZakhoErbil
23.3Attack43.3
53.3Defence83.3
30.0Form60.0
38.3Power63.0
0.34xG1.19