Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Uljanik · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Zagora 5-0 Uljanik
Original prediction
Uljanik
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 18:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.74 | 32.9% | 34.0% | 1.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 25.7% | 27.7% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 2.17 | 41.4% | 38.3% | -3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Uljanik
Probability
38.3%
Model confidence
38.3%
Uljanik has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ZagoraDLDDW
GF 10 · GA 12 · avg 2.00/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
UljanikDWWLW
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
ZagoraUljanik
33.3Attack50.0
66.7Defence83.3
33.3Form66.7
45.3Power68.0
1.26xG1.37