Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Zagora · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (7%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Zagora 1-1 Križevci
Original prediction
Zagora
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 September 2026 at 00:38 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.08 | 43.5% | 43.0% | -0.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 25.4% | 26.5% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.90 | 31.2% | 30.5% | -0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.57 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.3–17%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Zagora
Probability
43.0%
Model confidence
43.0%
Zagora has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ZagoraDDLWW
GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
KriževciDLLWD
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ZagoraKriževci
77.8Attack44.4
25.9Defence44.4
40.7Form40.7
47.6Power44.1
2.69xG1.76