Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Zagora · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 2-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Zagora 0-4 Dugo Selo
Original prediction
Zagora
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:46 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.95 | 46.5% | 42.5% | -4.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.66 | 24.8% | 28.3% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 3.16 | 28.7% | 29.2% | 0.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.2–010%
Predicted outcome
Zagora
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Zagora has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ZagoraWWDLD
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Dugo SeloWWLLW
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
ZagoraDugo Selo
100.0Attack43.3
83.3Defence58.9
66.7Form41.1
77.5Power48.4
1.60xG0.99