CupCup
Sunday, 26 July 2026Last updated 10:01
Zabreh

Zabreh

Home
22
Full time
Hranice

Hranice

Away
W
Town Stadium Zabreh
GoalVio prediction
40% confidence
Zabreh(40%)
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Zabreh
40%
Draw
24%
Hranice
35%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 1.42 xG for Zabreh and 1.28 xG for Hranice. Hranice's projected xG of 1.28 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 1-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. With only 1 goal expected in total, the match is projected to be a tight, low-scoring affair where one goal may be enough to decide the contest.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 2.70 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 1-0 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. Only 1 goal is expected in the most likely outcome — the model sees this as a tight, low-scoring contest where one goal could be decisive.

xG for (Hranice)
2.70
avg per match
xG against (Hranice)
1.80
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
HraniceHranice
W

Probability breakdown

40% confidence
Zabreh40%
Draw24%
Hranice35%

Zabreh leads with 40% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Zabreh Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-0

Zabreh take on Hranice in Cup.

Key factors

: ⚠️ Upset Risk Hranice have won 1 of their last 5 matches — a run of form that keeps this fixture competitive. While Zabreh carry the stronger underlying metrics, Hranice's recent results mean the gap is narrower than the headline verdict implies.

Why GoalVio backs this

Zabreh hold a slim but consistent edge across the key input metrics. No single factor clears the threshold required to claim a material advantage, but chance quality, defensive organisation, and recent form all point in the same direction — and when multiple independent signals align, that convergence is the model's case for Zabreh.

Biggest risk: The xG gap between these sides is narrow — a small swing in form, a set-piece goal, or a tactical adjustment could flip the result. The model favours Zabreh, but this is not a fixture where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. If Hranice score first, the game becomes genuinely open.

Risk factors

  • Zabreh have been conceding 1.60 goals per game — their defence could be exposed.
  • The xG gap is narrow at 0.14 — a small swing in form or tactics could flip the result.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.

Recent form

Hranice

Hranice

W
vs Zlín II
15 May 2026
32

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Zabreh vs Hranice?

GoalVio's model predicts Zabreh to win with 40% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Zabreh vs Hranice?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Zabreh vs Hranice?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Zabreh vs Hranice?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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