Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Yupanqui · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-0
Yupanqui are 1W-3D-1L in their last 5 (DDWLD), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.40 conceded, while Claypole are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDLWD), averaging 0.60 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 2 of those 10 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Yupanqui hold a 12.5-point power-rating edge (52.4 v 39.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 52.2% in the Primera C, while Yupanqui holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 26% BTTS chance and 23% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Yupanqui
Probability
52.2%
Model confidence
52.2%
Yupanqui has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 0.60/0.40
GF 3 · GA 5 · avg 0.60/1.00