Yunnan Yukunvs
Chongqing Tongliang Long
COMPLETEDChina · FA Cup · 9/2/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Yunnan Yukun · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Yunnan Yukun 1-0 Chongqing Tongliang Long
Original prediction
Yunnan Yukun
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.77 | 51.9% | 37.9% | -14.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.73 | 24.7% | 26.1% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 3.93 | 23.4% | 36.0% | 12.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.77 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-14.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Yunnan Yukun
Probability
37.9%
Model confidence
37.9%
Yunnan Yukun has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 13 · avg 1.80/2.60
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40