Ynyshir Albionsvs
Trethomas Bluebirds
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 9/26/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ynyshir Albions · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ynyshir Albions 1-1 Trethomas Bluebirds
Original prediction
Ynyshir Albions
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 03:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.37 | 38.0% | 41.7% | 3.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.4% | 24.9% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.46 | 36.6% | 33.4% | -3.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.54 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Ynyshir Albions
Probability
41.7%
Model confidence
41.7%
Ynyshir Albions has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 13 · GA 12 · avg 2.60/2.40