Ynyshir Albionsvs
llanelli AFC
COMPLETEDWales · FAW Championship · 10/10/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ynyshir Albions · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Projected score: Ynyshir Albions 2-0 llanelli AFC, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Ynyshir Albions 6-2 llanelli AFC
Original prediction
Ynyshir Albions
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 01:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.42 | 63.8% | 70.9% | 7.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.47 | 20.2% | 17.3% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 5.65 | 16.0% | 11.8% | -4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.42 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
7.1 pts
Projected Score
Ynyshir Albions 2–0 llanelli AFC
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Ynyshir Albions
Probability
70.9%
Model confidence
70.9%
Ynyshir Albions has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 1 · GA 13 · avg 0.20/2.60