Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Qatar · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Yemen 0-1 Qatar
Original prediction
Qatar
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 9.64 | 9.4% | 24.5% | 15.1 pts |
| Draw | 5.47 | 16.6% | 25.4% | 8.7 pts |
| Away | 1.23 | 73.9% | 50.1% | -23.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.23 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-23.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Qatar
Probability
50.1%
Model confidence
50.1%
Qatar has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
YemenLWLLL
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
QatarWDLLL
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
YemenQatar
0.0Attack66.7
0.0Defence100.0
0.0Form100.0
7.0Power88.7
1.05xG1.51