Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Yeclano · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Yeclano 0-0 Poblense, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Yeclano 2-2 Poblense
Original prediction
Yeclano
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.83 | 49.7% | 46.3% | -3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.06 | 29.6% | 30.6% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 4.39 | 20.7% | 23.1% | 2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.06 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-3.4 pts
Projected Score
Yeclano 0–0 Poblense
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Yeclano
Probability
46.3%
Model confidence
46.3%
Yeclano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
YeclanoDDWLD
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 0/5
PoblenseWLWLL
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
YeclanoPoblense
27.8Attack27.8
77.8Defence55.6
50.0Form33.3
55.0Power41.9
1.04xG0.61