Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sholing · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Yate Town 1-1 Sholing
Original prediction
Sholing
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.81 | 32.2% | 34.2% | 1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.4% | 24.9% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.19 | 41.4% | 41.0% | -0.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.43 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Sholing
Probability
41.0%
Model confidence
41.0%
Sholing has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Yate TownLLDLD
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
SholingWLDWW
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
Yate TownSholing
48.1Attack37.5
33.3Defence58.3
44.4Form54.2
44.7Power52.6
1.34xG1.48