Yangpyeongvs
Siheung Citizen
COMPLETEDSouth-Korea · K3 League · 9/6/2026, 8:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Siheung Citizen · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (13%), 0-2 (13%), 1-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Yangpyeong 1-3 Siheung Citizen
Original prediction
Siheung Citizen
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.17 | 21.6% | 15.6% | -6.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 27.8% | 22.5% | -5.4 pts |
| Away | 1.79 | 50.5% | 62.0% | 11.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.79 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–113%
- 2.0–213%
- 3.1–111%
Predicted outcome
Siheung Citizen
Probability
62.0%
Model confidence
62.0%
Siheung Citizen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 15 · avg 2.80/3.00
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00