Yanbian Longdingvs
Dongguan United
COMPLETEDChina · League One · 10/17/2026, 7:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Yanbian Longding · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (15%), 1-0 (12%), 3-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Yanbian Longding 5-0 Dongguan United
Original prediction
Yanbian Longding
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 12:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.51 | 59.8% | 71.9% | 12.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.86 | 23.4% | 17.7% | -5.7 pts |
| Away | 5.38 | 16.8% | 10.5% | -6.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.51 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–015%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.3–011%
Predicted outcome
Yanbian Longding
Probability
71.9%
Model confidence
71.9%
Yanbian Longding has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 8 · avg 0.60/1.60
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80