Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sogdiana · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Xorazm 0-0 Sogdiana
Original prediction
Sogdiana
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.85 | 31.7% | 30.3% | -1.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.33 | 27.2% | 26.1% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.21 | 41.0% | 43.5% | 2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.33 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Sogdiana
Probability
43.5%
Model confidence
43.5%
Sogdiana has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
XorazmLLLDW
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
SogdianaWLWWW
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
XorazmSogdiana
28.3Attack61.7
51.7Defence31.7
33.3Form45.0
40.4Power47.1
1.22xG1.67