Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Xorazm 0-0 Qizilqum, with an exact score probability of 22%.
Prediction record
Final result
Xorazm 1-3 Qizilqum
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.04 | 44.4% | 36.1% | -8.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.06 | 29.6% | 31.4% | 1.9 pts |
| Away | 3.48 | 26.0% | 32.5% | 6.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.9 pts
Projected Score
Xorazm 0–0 Qizilqum
Exact score probability: 22%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
31.4%
Model confidence
36.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
XorazmLDLLL
GF 2 · GA 7 · avg 0.40/1.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
QizilqumLWWLW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
XorazmQizilqum
27.0Attack31.7
54.0Defence54.0
33.3Form41.3
40.7Power44.1
0.79xG0.81