Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Navbahor · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Xorazm 0-1 Navbahor, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Xorazm 1-2 Navbahor
Original prediction
Navbahor
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 12:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.61 | 16.2% | 17.9% | 1.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.79 | 23.9% | 25.1% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 1.52 | 59.9% | 57.0% | -2.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.52 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.9 pts
Projected Score
Xorazm 0–1 Navbahor
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Navbahor
Probability
57.0%
Model confidence
57.0%
Navbahor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
XorazmDDLLD
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
NavbahorWDDWW
GF 13 · GA 7 · avg 2.60/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
XorazmNavbahor
27.8Attack58.3
52.8Defence66.7
31.9Form63.9
40.2Power64.3
0.55xG1.62