Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Xerez · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Xerez 0-0 Marbella, with an exact score probability of 22%.
Prediction record
Final result
Xerez 1-0 Marbella
Original prediction
Xerez
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 19:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.80 | 50.0% | 41.8% | -8.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.13 | 28.8% | 31.5% | 2.7 pts |
| Away | 4.25 | 21.2% | 26.7% | 5.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.80 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.2 pts
Projected Score
Xerez 0–0 Marbella
Exact score probability: 22%
Predicted outcome
Xerez
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
Xerez has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
XerezLDWLD
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
MarbellaDLLDW
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
XerezMarbella
22.2Attack28.6
66.7Defence57.1
27.8Form28.6
41.8Power39.3
0.88xG0.67