Xerezvs
Ciudad de Lucena
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · 10/18/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ciudad de Lucena · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-1 (15%), 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Xerez 0-1 Ciudad de Lucena
Original prediction
Ciudad de Lucena
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.93 | 46.6% | 31.9% | -14.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.01 | 29.9% | 29.2% | -0.7 pts |
| Away | 3.82 | 23.5% | 38.9% | 15.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.82 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–115%
- 2.0–015%
- 3.1–114%
Predicted outcome
Ciudad de Lucena
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Ciudad de Lucena has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00