Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Xerez · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Xerez 0-0 Badajoz, with an exact score probability of 26%.
Prediction record
Final result
Xerez 1-2 Badajoz
Original prediction
Xerez
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.13 | 42.2% | 39.7% | -2.4 pts |
| Draw | 2.97 | 30.2% | 32.5% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 3.25 | 27.6% | 27.7% | 0.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.4 pts
Projected Score
Xerez 0–0 Badajoz
Exact score probability: 26%
Predicted outcome
Xerez
Probability
39.7%
Model confidence
39.7%
Xerez has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
XerezDDWDD
GF 1 · GA 0 · avg 0.20/0.00
BTTS 0/5O2.5 0/5
BadajozWWDWD
GF 11 · GA 2 · avg 2.20/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
XerezBadajoz
31.4Attack50.0
76.5Defence50.0
57.8Form50.0
58.0Power50.0
0.88xG0.54