Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Xelajú are 2W-0D-2L in their last 4 (WWLL), averaging 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded, while Xinabajul are 0W-2D-0L in their last 2 (DD), averaging 1.50 scored and 1.50 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 6 games and 2 passed 2.5 goals, and Xelajú hold a 5.4-point power-rating edge (49.8 v 44.4). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 43.4% in the Liga Nacional, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 43% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 28% BTTS chance and 19% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
43.4%
Model confidence
43.4%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/1.00
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 1.50/1.50