Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Xelajú · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (14%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Xelajú 1-0 Municipal
Original prediction
Xelajú
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 16:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.22 | 41.0% | 36.3% | -4.8 pts |
| Draw | 2.84 | 32.0% | 28.7% | -3.3 pts |
| Away | 3.37 | 27.0% | 35.0% | 8.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.22 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–014%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Xelajú
Probability
36.3%
Model confidence
36.3%
Xelajú has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
XelajúLWLWL
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
MunicipalDDLDD
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 1/5
XelajúMunicipal
64.3Attack42.9
54.8Defence76.2
50.0Form57.1
55.6Power60.4
1.02xG1.08