Xelajúvs
Malacateco
COMPLETEDGuatemala · Liga Nacional · 10/15/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Xelajú · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Xelajú 2-1 Malacateco
Original prediction
Xelajú
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 20:08 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.42 | 63.7% | 69.6% | 5.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.99 | 22.7% | 18.5% | -4.2 pts |
| Away | 6.64 | 13.6% | 11.9% | -1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.42 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Xelajú
Probability
69.6%
Model confidence
69.6%
Xelajú has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
XelajúLWLWD
GF 11 · GA 7 · avg 2.20/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
MalacatecoWLLWD
GF 5 · GA 5 · avg 1.00/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
XelajúMalacateco
69.4Attack35.9
58.3Defence51.3
50.0Form38.5
58.0Power43.6
2.25xG0.79