Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Firpo · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Xelajú 1-1 Firpo
Original prediction
Firpo
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.19 | 41.2% | 31.8% | -9.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.23 | 28.0% | 26.4% | -1.6 pts |
| Away | 2.93 | 30.8% | 41.8% | 10.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.23 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Firpo
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
Firpo has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
XelajúLWLDL
GF 6 · GA 10 · avg 1.20/2.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
FirpoWWDWW
GF 8 · GA 0 · avg 1.60/0.00
BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
XelajúFirpo
44.4Attack66.7
33.3Defence77.8
33.3Form66.7
38.7Power68.7
1.19xG1.76