Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Xelajú · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Xelajú are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (LDLLL), averaging 1.20 scored and 2.80 conceded, while Firpo are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WLWDL), averaging 1.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Firpo hold a 7.3-point power-rating edge (16.3 v 23.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.8% in the CONCACAF Central American Cup, while Xelajú holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 55% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Xelajú
Probability
36.7%
Model confidence
12.8%
Xelajú has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 14 · avg 1.20/2.80
GF 8 · GA 4 · avg 1.60/0.80