Xelajúvs
Antigua GFC
COMPLETEDGuatemala · Liga Nacional · 9/24/2026, 2:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Antigua GFC · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Xelajú 4-0 Antigua GFC
Original prediction
Antigua GFC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 01:29 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.24 | 40.5% | 31.4% | -9.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.03 | 29.9% | 28.1% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 3.07 | 29.5% | 40.5% | 11.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Antigua GFC
Probability
40.5%
Model confidence
40.5%
Antigua GFC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
GF 11 · GA 9 · avg 2.20/1.80