Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wycombe · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 2-1 (8%), 2-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Wycombe 1-4 Luton
Original prediction
Wycombe
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:16 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.62 | 35.5% | 38.8% | 3.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.52 | 26.4% | 25.5% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 2.44 | 38.1% | 35.7% | -2.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.2–28%
Predicted outcome
Wycombe
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Wycombe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
WycombeWDWWW
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
LutonDWLLD
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
WycombeLuton
54.2Attack57.1
33.3Defence33.3
41.7Form38.1
45.6Power44.9
2.07xG1.86