Wuxi Wugouvs
Heilongjiang Lava Spring
COMPLETEDChina · League One · 10/17/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wuxi Wugou · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (10%), 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Wuxi Wugou 0-2 Heilongjiang Lava Spring
Original prediction
Wuxi Wugou
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 12:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.40 | 37.7% | 59.2% | 21.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.35 | 26.9% | 20.4% | -6.5 pts |
| Away | 2.56 | 35.4% | 20.4% | -14.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
21.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–010%
- 2.1–110%
- 3.2–110%
Predicted outcome
Wuxi Wugou
Probability
59.2%
Model confidence
59.2%
Wuxi Wugou has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40