Wuxi Wugouvs
Guangxi Hengchen
COMPLETEDChina · League One · 9/25/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Guangxi Hengchen · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Wuxi Wugou 0-1 Guangxi Hengchen
Original prediction
Guangxi Hengchen
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:54 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.87 | 31.4% | 34.0% | 2.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.31 | 27.2% | 25.3% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.17 | 41.5% | 40.7% | -0.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.17 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Guangxi Hengchen
Probability
40.7%
Model confidence
40.7%
Guangxi Hengchen has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00