Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wrexham · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Wrexham are 4W-1D-0L in their last 5 (WWDWW), averaging 2.20 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Port Vale are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WLLDD), averaging 0.60 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Wrexham hold a 28.6-point power-rating edge (70.5 v 41.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 57.5% in the EFL Trophy, while Wrexham holds the strongest overall chance at 57% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 56% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Wrexham
Probability
57.5%
Model confidence
57.5%
Wrexham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80
GF 3 · GA 4 · avg 0.60/0.80