Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Wrexham · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Wrexham are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWWL), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.20 conceded, while Crewe are 1W-4D-0L in their last 5 (DDDWD), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 1 passed 2.5 goals, and Wrexham hold a 33.8-point power-rating edge (70.5 v 36.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 61.3% in the EFL Trophy, while Wrexham holds the strongest overall chance at 61% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 64% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Wrexham
Probability
61.3%
Model confidence
61.3%
Wrexham has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 1 · avg 1.20/0.20
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80