Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bolton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
Wrexham are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (WWLDL), averaging 2.00 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Bolton are 3W-0D-2L in their last 5 (WLWWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 8 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Bolton hold an 18.0-point power-rating edge (70.5 v 88.5). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 46.7% in the EFL Trophy, while Bolton holds the strongest overall chance at 47% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 66% BTTS chance and 65% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Bolton
Probability
46.7%
Model confidence
46.7%
Bolton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40