Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Worthing · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Worthing 2-2 Barrow
Original prediction
Worthing
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.57 | 35.4% | 41.0% | 5.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 26.9% | 25.2% | -1.7 pts |
| Away | 2.41 | 37.7% | 33.8% | -4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.38 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Worthing
Probability
41.0%
Model confidence
41.0%
Worthing has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
WorthingDLLWL
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
BarrowWDLDL
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
WorthingBarrow
61.1Attack44.4
33.3Defence50.0
38.9Form27.8
47.4Power41.6
1.85xG1.50