Worthingvs
AFC Hornchurch
COMPLETEDEngland · National League · 9/15/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Worthing · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Worthing 1-0 AFC Hornchurch
Original prediction
Worthing
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.12 | 43.0% | 41.5% | -1.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.7% | 24.6% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 2.91 | 31.3% | 33.9% | 2.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.12 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-1.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Worthing
Probability
41.5%
Model confidence
41.5%
Worthing has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00