Worksop Townvs
United of Manchester
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Worksop Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Worksop Town 0-3 United of Manchester
Original prediction
Worksop Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.66 | 54.8% | 39.4% | -15.4 pts |
| Draw | 4.08 | 22.3% | 26.6% | 4.3 pts |
| Away | 3.96 | 23.0% | 34.0% | 11.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–19%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Worksop Town
Probability
39.4%
Model confidence
39.4%
Worksop Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 10 · avg 2.20/2.00
GF 16 · GA 9 · avg 3.20/1.80