Worksop Townvs
Morecambe
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Morecambe · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Worksop Town 0-1 Morecambe, with an exact score probability of 17%.
Prediction record
Final result
Worksop Town 2-1 Morecambe
Original prediction
Morecambe
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.65 | 34.3% | 20.9% | -13.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 26.8% | 25.9% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.34 | 38.9% | 53.2% | 14.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.4 pts
Projected Score
Worksop Town 0–1 Morecambe
Exact score probability: 17%
Predicted outcome
Morecambe
Probability
53.2%
Model confidence
53.2%
Morecambe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 11 · avg 2.00/2.20
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60