Worksop Townvs
AFC Telford United
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 9/22/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Worksop Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Worksop Town 5-2 AFC Telford United
Original prediction
Worksop Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 46.9% | 41.8% | -5.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 24.8% | 25.9% | 1.1 pts |
| Away | 3.19 | 28.3% | 32.3% | 4.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.92 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Worksop Town
Probability
41.8%
Model confidence
41.8%
Worksop Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60