Worcester Cityvs
Chorley
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/20/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Worcester City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Worcester City 1-0 Chorley
Original prediction
Worcester City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 19 October 2026 at 10:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.48 | 36.7% | 39.5% | 2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.2% | 26.5% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.45 | 37.1% | 34.0% | -3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.48 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Worcester City
Probability
39.5%
Model confidence
39.5%
Worcester City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80